Hello Everyone,
The early bird gets the worm, but may also suffer the attention of the hawk. The second mouse safely gets the cheese.
I am occasionally guilty of falling into the first category and investing too early into a sector or a stock before it has become firmly established. Not always, but when a favourite subject such as the use of energy, and in particular renewable energies, has my full attention then I find myself moving unwittingly into this danger zone. I have to remember that although finding the right fund and stock early can give phenomenal returns, holding on to, and running with a loser is a truly effective laxative.
Investing into hydrogen, and to some extent solar and wind turbines as a source of long-term green energy ‘may’ already have fallen into the category of too early. In the case of hydrogen, the stocks I.T.M Power, Ceres Power and the fund HydrogenOne Capital Growth (all three were my hot stocks) have tumbled in value after initially experiencing great growth. Hydrogen has been overtaken by the likes of solar and wind power to produce our energy, but they themselves are not a totally reliable source. The wind may not blow and the sun may not shine. They will require an accompanying source of energy to safely and consistently meet demand.
On top of this there are question marks about the life expectancy and thereby the true cost of the off-shore turbines. It would appear that some of the large companies involved in the supply and maintenance are not taking up new contracts and some are even reneging on their existing ones and accepting penalties. It is possible that this may then for a time detract from the value of Clean Energy funds such as Pictet and S&P Global Clean Energy. Similar reasons may account for why some of the large oil companies that previously were investing and singing out about their green credentials are now for the moment back-tracking, and moving in a small way back towards carbon-based fuels.
Solar power in China is at the other extreme. I have recently read (assuming that it is true) that giant panel farms are being constructed in their ‘sun’ friendly deserts. Some already have more than five million operational panels with a target of more than eight million before 2030. Apparently this will allow China to achieve net zero sometime before 2050, eclipsing the performance of the countries in the West. If they then adopt battery and electric car manufacturing with the same enthusiasm, it is going to rock the automobile industries of America and Europe with an accompanying knock-on effect on their economies. Perhaps this means that renewables and not threats and weaponry, will contribute to China achieving its target of overtaking America and becoming the world’s number one economy.
You can always count on our politicians, senior civil servants and the media to do the right thing, but only after they have tried and failed at everything else. Therefore by the process of elimination it must now be the time for Nuclear Power. A truly green fuel. It can be placed where it is needed with a size to suit needs. Uranium stocks are not restricted and the used material can now be safely disposed of. It is not intermittent and dependent on the weather, and can be easily increased to meet demand. Rolls Royce has mini nuclear power plants that are already safely powering submarines and aircraft carriers proving that the technology is already available. If our ‘leaders’ want to see a net zero anytime soon, then they must stop flying in the face of reality and start signing the paperwork ideally involving British companies and their labour forces. It would appear that we are going to end up with a number of sources of energy generation to give the country certainty of supply. This will be no bad thing.
There are a number of funds and stocks to consider investing into which are benefiting from the growth in the use of nuclear energy. Yellow Cake (uranium storage), Geiger Counter, Cameco (uranium producer), ETF Sprott Uranium miners, and ETF Global X Uranium. Beware, I have invested into these and I hope that it will not be too early as it was with hydrogen!
There is also another metal that will be in high demand and could become short on supply. That is copper. As the country and the rest of the world moves into these renewable fuels, using whatever method of generating electricity that has been chosen, it still has got to be made available to the end user. The explosion in the number of electric cars, heat pumps, kitchen appliances, and central heating systems switching from gas to electric is calculated to more than double the volume which will need to be supplied through the National Grid. This means vast quantities of copper will also be required to refurbish the National Grid, and transmission systems. We are not alone in making this change, all the countries that go down this route will require copper.
In these circumstances present supplies of copper are likely to struggle to keep up with demand. To bring a new copper mine into production takes decades, assuming that new fields can be found which are as productive and accessible as the present mines. This over the longer term must suggest an increase in its cost. To spread the risk of investing, it is probably best to use a trust fund such as BlackRock World Mining. It is probably a good play as it holds quite a high percentage of copper based investments. Over the years that I have held this fund it has not broken down any doors, perhaps this will be the occasion. There are of course more specific ETFs such as Global X Copper Miners.
Another area that is receiving a vast amount of attention is agriculture. The world’s population continues to increase, if not in the West it is certainly doing so in the developing countries, and the overall direction is up. This must mean an increase in demand for food and water at a time when towns and cities will be expanding at the expense of agricultural land. Artificial Intelligence and increased computing strength and skills should hopefully come to the rescue. To address demand, seeds, pesticides, and fertilisers and their application will be improved out of all recognition. Cattle farming is responsible for a large percentage of the world’s greenhouse gases. So how long before additives are added to their food to reduce this problem? I am guessing not long. Vertical farming of salad crops will save space and water and can be moved inside the demand area saving transport miles. Vaccines will be developed to reduce disease in livestock and chickens, thereby increasing their life span and reducing waste. To me this is all incredibly positive for the future. Unfortunately as yet I have not found a fund which invests in companies operating in this field, but they must exist. Any ideas?
Reading the above you may think that I only invest into areas of new development with higher risks. That is not the case, for the moment the bulk of my investments follow the Saltydog “Safe” funds and are also in cash. This give steady growth, but its very boring!
Listening to today’s tirade of constantly depressing news from the media, I am reminded of a quotation by Michelangelo. “The problems that human beings face, is not that they aim too high and fail, but that they aim too low and succeed.” A saying well worth remembering in business as well as politics.
On a subject totally outside of Saltydog. I came across a poem by Walter D. Wintle which would be an inspiration to today’s younger generation. Here goes….
If you think you are beaten, you are;
If you dare not, you don’t.
If you like to win, but you think you can’t.
It is almost certain you won’t.
If you think you will lose, you’re lost.
For out of the world we find
Success begins with a fellow’s will
It’s all in a state of mind.
If you think you are out classed, you are;
You’ve got to think high to rise.
You’ve got to be sure of yourself before
You can ever win a prize.
Life’s battles don’t always go
To the stronger or faster man.
But sooner or later the man who wins
Is the man WHO THINKS HE CAN.
The early bird gets the worm, but may also suffer the attention of the hawk. The second mouse safely gets the cheese.
I am occasionally guilty of falling into the first category and investing too early into a sector or a stock before it has become firmly established. Not always, but when a favourite subject such as the use of energy, and in particular renewable energies, has my full attention then I find myself moving unwittingly into this danger zone. I have to remember that although finding the right fund and stock early can give phenomenal returns, holding on to, and running with a loser is a truly effective laxative.
Investing into hydrogen, and to some extent solar and wind turbines as a source of long-term green energy ‘may’ already have fallen into the category of too early. In the case of hydrogen, the stocks I.T.M Power, Ceres Power and the fund HydrogenOne Capital Growth (all three were my hot stocks) have tumbled in value after initially experiencing great growth. Hydrogen has been overtaken by the likes of solar and wind power to produce our energy, but they themselves are not a totally reliable source. The wind may not blow and the sun may not shine. They will require an accompanying source of energy to safely and consistently meet demand.
On top of this there are question marks about the life expectancy and thereby the true cost of the off-shore turbines. It would appear that some of the large companies involved in the supply and maintenance are not taking up new contracts and some are even reneging on their existing ones and accepting penalties. It is possible that this may then for a time detract from the value of Clean Energy funds such as Pictet and S&P Global Clean Energy. Similar reasons may account for why some of the large oil companies that previously were investing and singing out about their green credentials are now for the moment back-tracking, and moving in a small way back towards carbon-based fuels.
Solar power in China is at the other extreme. I have recently read (assuming that it is true) that giant panel farms are being constructed in their ‘sun’ friendly deserts. Some already have more than five million operational panels with a target of more than eight million before 2030. Apparently this will allow China to achieve net zero sometime before 2050, eclipsing the performance of the countries in the West. If they then adopt battery and electric car manufacturing with the same enthusiasm, it is going to rock the automobile industries of America and Europe with an accompanying knock-on effect on their economies. Perhaps this means that renewables and not threats and weaponry, will contribute to China achieving its target of overtaking America and becoming the world’s number one economy.
You can always count on our politicians, senior civil servants and the media to do the right thing, but only after they have tried and failed at everything else. Therefore by the process of elimination it must now be the time for Nuclear Power. A truly green fuel. It can be placed where it is needed with a size to suit needs. Uranium stocks are not restricted and the used material can now be safely disposed of. It is not intermittent and dependent on the weather, and can be easily increased to meet demand. Rolls Royce has mini nuclear power plants that are already safely powering submarines and aircraft carriers proving that the technology is already available. If our ‘leaders’ want to see a net zero anytime soon, then they must stop flying in the face of reality and start signing the paperwork ideally involving British companies and their labour forces. It would appear that we are going to end up with a number of sources of energy generation to give the country certainty of supply. This will be no bad thing.
There are a number of funds and stocks to consider investing into which are benefiting from the growth in the use of nuclear energy. Yellow Cake (uranium storage), Geiger Counter, Cameco (uranium producer), ETF Sprott Uranium miners, and ETF Global X Uranium. Beware, I have invested into these and I hope that it will not be too early as it was with hydrogen!
There is also another metal that will be in high demand and could become short on supply. That is copper. As the country and the rest of the world moves into these renewable fuels, using whatever method of generating electricity that has been chosen, it still has got to be made available to the end user. The explosion in the number of electric cars, heat pumps, kitchen appliances, and central heating systems switching from gas to electric is calculated to more than double the volume which will need to be supplied through the National Grid. This means vast quantities of copper will also be required to refurbish the National Grid, and transmission systems. We are not alone in making this change, all the countries that go down this route will require copper.
In these circumstances present supplies of copper are likely to struggle to keep up with demand. To bring a new copper mine into production takes decades, assuming that new fields can be found which are as productive and accessible as the present mines. This over the longer term must suggest an increase in its cost. To spread the risk of investing, it is probably best to use a trust fund such as BlackRock World Mining. It is probably a good play as it holds quite a high percentage of copper based investments. Over the years that I have held this fund it has not broken down any doors, perhaps this will be the occasion. There are of course more specific ETFs such as Global X Copper Miners.
Another area that is receiving a vast amount of attention is agriculture. The world’s population continues to increase, if not in the West it is certainly doing so in the developing countries, and the overall direction is up. This must mean an increase in demand for food and water at a time when towns and cities will be expanding at the expense of agricultural land. Artificial Intelligence and increased computing strength and skills should hopefully come to the rescue. To address demand, seeds, pesticides, and fertilisers and their application will be improved out of all recognition. Cattle farming is responsible for a large percentage of the world’s greenhouse gases. So how long before additives are added to their food to reduce this problem? I am guessing not long. Vertical farming of salad crops will save space and water and can be moved inside the demand area saving transport miles. Vaccines will be developed to reduce disease in livestock and chickens, thereby increasing their life span and reducing waste. To me this is all incredibly positive for the future. Unfortunately as yet I have not found a fund which invests in companies operating in this field, but they must exist. Any ideas?
Reading the above you may think that I only invest into areas of new development with higher risks. That is not the case, for the moment the bulk of my investments follow the Saltydog “Safe” funds and are also in cash. This give steady growth, but its very boring!
Listening to today’s tirade of constantly depressing news from the media, I am reminded of a quotation by Michelangelo. “The problems that human beings face, is not that they aim too high and fail, but that they aim too low and succeed.” A saying well worth remembering in business as well as politics.
On a subject totally outside of Saltydog. I came across a poem by Walter D. Wintle which would be an inspiration to today’s younger generation. Here goes….
If you think you are beaten, you are;
If you dare not, you don’t.
If you like to win, but you think you can’t.
It is almost certain you won’t.
If you think you will lose, you’re lost.
For out of the world we find
Success begins with a fellow’s will
It’s all in a state of mind.
If you think you are out classed, you are;
You’ve got to think high to rise.
You’ve got to be sure of yourself before
You can ever win a prize.
Life’s battles don’t always go
To the stronger or faster man.
But sooner or later the man who wins
Is the man WHO THINKS HE CAN.
Best wishes and good luck with your investments.
Douglas
Founder & Chairman
Comments
1 comment
Thanks for a good read.
Suggest an interest in business with shareholder Jim Mellon named AGRONOMICS [ LSE:ANIC ] which is at an interesting low price over the past few months, but may well be the time to test the water.
DD
8/12/23 20:02 UK
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