Hello Everyone,
I fear the day that technology will surpass our human interaction. The world will have a generation of idiots.
Although often attributed to Albert Einstein, he probably didn’t say this. However, he was concerned about the effect that technology could have on society.
It would be fascinating to have him pay us a visit today and get his view on the world we now live in. I feel he would say that we have started the descent towards this forecast becoming true. Mind you, since we already cannot tell whether what we are seeing and hearing is real, he may or may not actually be present!
Recently, the big seven American technology companies (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla) have been so successful that their p/e ratios are now at astronomically high levels, thereby also keeping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at their all-time highs. These same businesses are now valued higher than the combined worth of all the European countries put together. They are all heavily involved in Artificial Intelligence in its many forms, all of which are impacting on our present society and will eventually decide the workings of the future world. I think Einstein would be greatly concerned.
I have to admit that I am not an eighty-one-year-old “techno” in any shape or form. Internet banking, Siri, and going cashless have just passed me by. My “carer,” the wife, now fulfils these duties for me. In the future it is going to be interesting to see whether you or your dog gets to drone delivered parcels first. Also, I do not look forward to the day when driverless cars mix with the ageing population of real drivers.
Of course, for us as investors it has had a very positive effect on the value of Technology, A.I. and American funds. They are constantly at the top of the Saltydog tables making very strong gains. Polar Capital Technology, Liontrust Global Technology, Pictet Digital, UBS US Growth to name a few. From that point of view, long may it last? One could say, “It has been a short walk for a big biscuit.” Now is the time to stay alert and look beyond technology. All good things come to an end, it is just a question of when, and how dramatic the revaluation and the accompanying fall will be. Then, as and when it becomes necessary, which will be the next growth arena.
In my last thoughts article, I nailed my colours to the mast by saying that Nuclear Energy, both the creation and engineering of the reactors plus the mining and processing of uranium, could possibly fulfil that arena. One of the readers of the article, who agreed with this philosophy, suggested that I read information being produced by the “World Nuclear Association”. Well, this I did and it has blown my socks off. I had no idea of just how widespread the use of nuclear reactors already is. Admittedly the greater percentage of them are using older technology, but here are some of the numbers as of February 2024.
There are a total of 436 nuclear reactors operating worldwide. There are also 62 reactors under construction, another 119 planned, and a further 324 proposed. I find these numbers just incredible. In order of ownership, the USA, France, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and India are the big players, but most other countries have some exposure. For all of these reactors to be operational, it will require 67,517 tonnes of Uranium per annum. Presently the mining production figure is 49,355 tonnes per annum, so somewhat of a shortfall. Kazakhstan is producing just short of half of this total, followed by Canada, Namibia, Australia, Uzbekistan, Russia, Niger, and China.
It makes you think that we are going to need a new generation of reactors able to use uranium more efficiently, and just how important it is going to be to secure stocks of this material. This you would think would accelerate the further development and production of the more efficient Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). America, France and South Korea are a long way down the line in the development of SMRs. Here in the UK, Rolls Royce already has these available, let us just hope that for once, the government and civil servants will move with speed to take advantage of this situation, and not mire down and delay the decision making with red tape.
Whilst reading about SMRs, I came across a puzzling article about a company called Sheffield Forgemasters. A long-established business that is now owned by the UK Government and the Ministry of Defence. Amongst other things it is involved in the manufacture of nuclear pressure vessels. The conventional method of welding these containers used to take around a year to complete. Forgemasters are now using a technique called Local Electron-Beam Welding, reducing the time to less than twenty-four hours! Can this possibly be true? If it is, you would have thought the expression “shouting from the roof tops” would be appropriate, especially with the resurgence of interest in the generation of Nuclear Energy. I would be very interested to hear from anybody else who knows about this process and Sheffield Forgemasters.
On a more mundane front, my own SIPP investments are virtually unchanged from the last Thoughts article. I am still holding a large percentage of the Safe and Slow funds. I am still in love with the funds Jupiter India, and Sanlam Artificial Intelligence. The technology funds Polar Capital,
Liontrust Global and Pictet Digital are safe until changes occur in the USA with the revaluation of the Seven Riders of the Apocalypse. As you would suspect, I also continue to have my toe in the water with the businesses and funds involved with the production of Nuclear Energy and Uranium mining.
I leave you with this thought which seems appropriate in today’s climate. “The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.” (John Foster Dulles).
I fear the day that technology will surpass our human interaction. The world will have a generation of idiots.
Although often attributed to Albert Einstein, he probably didn’t say this. However, he was concerned about the effect that technology could have on society.
It would be fascinating to have him pay us a visit today and get his view on the world we now live in. I feel he would say that we have started the descent towards this forecast becoming true. Mind you, since we already cannot tell whether what we are seeing and hearing is real, he may or may not actually be present!
Recently, the big seven American technology companies (Microsoft, Apple, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, Meta and Tesla) have been so successful that their p/e ratios are now at astronomically high levels, thereby also keeping the S&P 500 and Nasdaq at their all-time highs. These same businesses are now valued higher than the combined worth of all the European countries put together. They are all heavily involved in Artificial Intelligence in its many forms, all of which are impacting on our present society and will eventually decide the workings of the future world. I think Einstein would be greatly concerned.
I have to admit that I am not an eighty-one-year-old “techno” in any shape or form. Internet banking, Siri, and going cashless have just passed me by. My “carer,” the wife, now fulfils these duties for me. In the future it is going to be interesting to see whether you or your dog gets to drone delivered parcels first. Also, I do not look forward to the day when driverless cars mix with the ageing population of real drivers.
Of course, for us as investors it has had a very positive effect on the value of Technology, A.I. and American funds. They are constantly at the top of the Saltydog tables making very strong gains. Polar Capital Technology, Liontrust Global Technology, Pictet Digital, UBS US Growth to name a few. From that point of view, long may it last? One could say, “It has been a short walk for a big biscuit.” Now is the time to stay alert and look beyond technology. All good things come to an end, it is just a question of when, and how dramatic the revaluation and the accompanying fall will be. Then, as and when it becomes necessary, which will be the next growth arena.
In my last thoughts article, I nailed my colours to the mast by saying that Nuclear Energy, both the creation and engineering of the reactors plus the mining and processing of uranium, could possibly fulfil that arena. One of the readers of the article, who agreed with this philosophy, suggested that I read information being produced by the “World Nuclear Association”. Well, this I did and it has blown my socks off. I had no idea of just how widespread the use of nuclear reactors already is. Admittedly the greater percentage of them are using older technology, but here are some of the numbers as of February 2024.
There are a total of 436 nuclear reactors operating worldwide. There are also 62 reactors under construction, another 119 planned, and a further 324 proposed. I find these numbers just incredible. In order of ownership, the USA, France, China, Russia, Japan, South Korea, and India are the big players, but most other countries have some exposure. For all of these reactors to be operational, it will require 67,517 tonnes of Uranium per annum. Presently the mining production figure is 49,355 tonnes per annum, so somewhat of a shortfall. Kazakhstan is producing just short of half of this total, followed by Canada, Namibia, Australia, Uzbekistan, Russia, Niger, and China.
It makes you think that we are going to need a new generation of reactors able to use uranium more efficiently, and just how important it is going to be to secure stocks of this material. This you would think would accelerate the further development and production of the more efficient Small Modular Reactors (SMRs). America, France and South Korea are a long way down the line in the development of SMRs. Here in the UK, Rolls Royce already has these available, let us just hope that for once, the government and civil servants will move with speed to take advantage of this situation, and not mire down and delay the decision making with red tape.
Whilst reading about SMRs, I came across a puzzling article about a company called Sheffield Forgemasters. A long-established business that is now owned by the UK Government and the Ministry of Defence. Amongst other things it is involved in the manufacture of nuclear pressure vessels. The conventional method of welding these containers used to take around a year to complete. Forgemasters are now using a technique called Local Electron-Beam Welding, reducing the time to less than twenty-four hours! Can this possibly be true? If it is, you would have thought the expression “shouting from the roof tops” would be appropriate, especially with the resurgence of interest in the generation of Nuclear Energy. I would be very interested to hear from anybody else who knows about this process and Sheffield Forgemasters.
On a more mundane front, my own SIPP investments are virtually unchanged from the last Thoughts article. I am still holding a large percentage of the Safe and Slow funds. I am still in love with the funds Jupiter India, and Sanlam Artificial Intelligence. The technology funds Polar Capital,
Liontrust Global and Pictet Digital are safe until changes occur in the USA with the revaluation of the Seven Riders of the Apocalypse. As you would suspect, I also continue to have my toe in the water with the businesses and funds involved with the production of Nuclear Energy and Uranium mining.
I leave you with this thought which seems appropriate in today’s climate. “The measure of success is not whether you have a tough problem to deal with, but whether it is the same problem you had last year.” (John Foster Dulles).
Best wishes and good luck with your investments.
Douglas
Founder & Chairman
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