Published noise

Posted on 4 October 2011 by Douglas Chadwick

Today there is a huge amount of noise being published about the future of world economies and stock markets. In times of uncertainty be it political,economical or at times of war, predicting the future becomes an art form. Out come the Tarot cards,the palm reading,the naturalists even the intestinal production of your enemies takes on new meaning. The Sooth Sayers and the Witch doctors from the rival political parties,the Economists and the disciples of Nostradamus all have their say. Well if enough is broadcast and published,then by the contradictory nature of random opinions, somebody will get it right.
 
This person becomes the next oracle. The person to lead us out of the wilderness into the promised land of a calm and profitable future. Unfortunately all too frequently this person or organisation has fooled us all by pontificating on all possible outcomes. They have covered all the bases and appear as winners what ever the outcome and resulting market conditions. In the Kingdom of the Blind it is easy to be fooled by all these utterances and predictions.
 
I am ashamed to say that at Saltydog we have fallen well and truly into this trap although the portfolio has progressed since its formation whilst most of the financial world appears to have gone backwards. Why oh why have we had an  amount in GOLD funds for the last couple of months. Admittedly only a small amount but some never the less. The numbers do not show the need and Jesse Livermore certainly would not be invested in this arena. This investment has dragged the portfolio back. So why? The reason is simple. Misguided sentiment and a blind reaction to the noise in the press. We have not followed our own numbers and rules. HOW STUPID IS THAT? Lets get rid of the chicken bones and get back to basics. Simply just trust the numbers.