SHORT ON FACTS, LONG ON SUGAR

Posted on 28 May 2015 by Douglas Chadwick

Based on the recent variable performance of the stock markets around the world, one could be excused for feeling like a man who has survived one tsunami and is expecting another. Your safety is paramount, and you have become very much averse to risk. This is at a time when some markets are recording highs, but they do not have any really clear direction, and are not showing what could be described as a momentum-building trend. The one exception is possibly the U.K. and the table below may be an indication that this is the case and so taking some risk could potentially be justified. The media and press have been full of predictions of doom and gloom. They said that the UK was in for another coalition government; that the Greek pantomime would not be resolved without an exit from the Euro; also that the up and coming British referendum might result in another exit and the destruction of the European Union; finally both China and American economies are starting to fall by the wayside. I could go on with a longer list of published possible calamities, but what would be the point? These people are not dealing in facts, but opinions, and dwelling for too long on these can result in missed opportunities. At Saltydog we have no excuse for missing out as we present our information on a weekly basis with graphs to demonstrate the sector and fund movements. We have the luxury of being able to put our toe in the investment water with a small amount of money, and then retreating back up the beach if we are wrong. If we are right and a positive trend is shown to be developing then we can continue to invest and wade in until that tip-toeing intake of breath tells you that it is far enough! Looking at this table and the dates when we at Saltydog decided to put our toe in the water, you can see that we listened too much to the chatter and not to the numbers. Waiting until May, after the election result was declared, was too late and a more adventurous February investment (or even earlier) would have produced a much more lucrative result. No doubt we will learn this lesson time and again.