Posted on 23 July 2019 by Douglas ChadwickI wonder if Boris Johnson is feeling that his opportunity has now come as he picks up the reins from Mrs May. He has got quite some task to lead the country through this Brexit ordeal, and towards a socially acceptable, and economically flourishing future. I guess it is excusable if he likens his own situation to that of Winston Churchill at the start of the Second World War. Certainly, in one sense, with politics as it has now become it must be more difficult today to tell friend from foe. It’s going to be interesting to see his cabinet selection and then to see how long that holds together as negotiations with the EU hot up. Here at Saltydog it has become vital that we do not get diverted away from following the numbers and sector performance as we move towards the 31st October. The following are some of the thoughts, and distractions, that are rock and rolling around my cranium at the moment; unfortunately, without any answers.
- Will the EU wise up and admit to the internal economic pain that they will suffer from a no-deal Brexit, and soften their approach?
- The EU has many other internal problems, both financial and political, to contend with at the moment. Another reason to soften their approach and make Brexit go away.
- The UK stock market has not yet taken a dive at the thought of a Boris government intent on leaving with or without a deal. The question is why?
- Does this mean that leaving without a deal will not be as harmful as the “Fear campaign and Hammond” are leading us to believe?
- How much of an attraction to the EU, if at all, are the billions of euros offered as a divorce settlement for a trade deal?
- Sterling has recently weakened against most currencies, but not down to the level immediately after the referendum. Does this mean that the markets believe a favourable solution to Brexit is possibly on the horizon with a Boris led government? Otherwise, why has it not fallen further?